Bucks edge Wizards in OT

Basketball Betting Lines

11/05/2008 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Richard Jefferson scored a game-high 32 points for the Bucks, leading Milwaukee to its first home win of the year in a 112-104 overtime victory over the Washington Wizards.

Down by 12 heading into the final frame, Milwaukee was able to forge a tie on the heels of a 12-5 run to end regulation. The Bucks were able to outscore Washington 14-6 in the extra frame to take the win.

Jefferson shot 13-of-23 from the floor and had nine assists for the Bucks, who have won three of five to start the season. Ramon Sessions, who only appeared in 17 games last season -- his rookie campaign, scored 22 points and dished out eight assists in his second consecutive start at the point.

Luke Ridnour, who sat out the past two games with back spasms, posted a double-double with 20 points and 11 assists, and rookie Luc Mbah a Moute had 17 points, including 11 in the final quarter and overtime.

The Bucks were without star guard Michael Redd, who was sidelined with a sprained ankle he suffered Sunday against the Knicks. He is expected to return Friday against Boston.

Caron Butler scored a team-high 27 points on 9-of-15 shooting, and Antawn Jamison added 19 points and 10 rebounds for the Wizards, who have dropped three straight to open the season. Nick Young contributed 14 points, as the Wizards shot 43.6 percent from the floor.

Washington attempted a season-high 51 free throws but could only convert on 34 of the chances.

The teams traded a couple early baskets in the overtime period, and the game was tied 102-102 with two minutes to play after Andrew Bogut missed a free throw that would have capped a three-point play.

After a steal on the ensuing possession, Jefferson capped a 3-on-1 with a one- handed dunk to give Milwaukee a two-point lead. Mbah a Moute gave the Bucks a 106-102 lead with 1:14 to go with a acrobatic layup, and the rookie from UCLA hit an important jumper on the next series to go up 108-102.

Washington would cut the lead to four, but the Bucks made enough free throws to keep the Wizards at bay and secure the victory.

Milwaukee took an early 11-2 lead in the first four minutes thanks to a couple Jefferson jump shots. Jefferson scored a total of 14 points in the opening quarter, and the Bucks took a healthy 30-17 advantage into the second.

The Wizards dominated the second quarter by a 28-9 margin -- including a 13-0 run to end the half. The Bucks didn't score for the last 6:34 of the quarter, and Washington headed into halftime up 45-39.

Washington widened its lead, starting the second half on a 10-2 burst. Butler had four points, while Jamison and Antonio Daniels each contributed three in the first few minutes of the quarter. The teams traded baskets for the remainder of the third, and the Wizards headed into the final frame up 78-66.

Down 89-76 with 7:31 to play, the Bucks went on a 7-0 run to cut the lead to six. Mbah a Moute and Jefferson hit jumpers on consecutive possessions to bring Milwaukee the closest they had been since halftime.

Mbah a Moute hit a layup on the next possession to make it a four-point game, but DeShawn Stevenson hit a three to put the Wizards up seven with four minutes left. Sessions had a nifty layup that turned into a three-point play to bring the Bucks' deficit to four once again, and a Ridnour jumper cut it to one a couple possessions later.

After a Butler free throw made it 96-94, Sessions stole the ball at the key and tied the game on an uncontested layup. Washington committed a shot clock violation, giving Milwaukee possession with 51.3 seconds to go.

Bogut made an emphatic dunk to give Milwaukee the lead with 35.0 seconds to go, but Jamison tied the game again at 98 with a floater with 21.8 seconds left. Holding for the final possession, the Bucks went to Mbah a Moute for the winning jump shot, but he clanked it off the rim, sending the game into overtime.

Game Notes

Wizards center Etan Thomas missed the game with an ankle sprain. Thomas sat out all of 2007-08 after undergoing open heart surgery...Milwaukee has won three of the past four meetings between the clubs...Washington turned the ball over 20 times, while Milwaukee had 19 turnovers in the game...The Wizards made just 2-of-18 three-point attempts...Milwaukee shot 49.5 percent from the floor.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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